Bend, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

050
FXUS66 KPDT 301741
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1041 AM PDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR conditions will extend through the
period for all sites. No CIG or VIS issues with the next system
approaching the PacNW, however rain and some gusty winds will be
the primary factors for this period. All sites are expected to
receive rain at some point, with the line starting at the BDN/RDM
area at 20Z. The rain line will continue to push NE throughout the
CWA, reaching DLS at 23z, then onwards to PDT/ALW/PSC at
05-06z. Rain will last a few hours before a second round of precip
flusters the area during the last few hours of the period. Winds
remain light for DLS/PSC with sustained winds up to 12 knots.
Elsewhere will see gusts up to 20-30 knots during the heaviest
rainfall.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM PDT Sun Mar 30 2025/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Unsettled conditions are
forecast for most of the period as a broad upper-level low in the
Pacific dominates the synoptic pattern. Current water vapor
imagery reveals multiple circulation centers embedded within the
broader upper low that stretches across the northeast Pacific and
Gulf of Alaska. NWP guidance suggests the low center in the
vicinity of 44N, 144W will become the main feature of interest as
it first deepens through today before slowly weakening as it
tracks onshore late Monday through Tuesday.

Mostly dry conditions early this morning will give way to
increasing clouds and showers this afternoon as a weak front
arrives from the southwest. Precipitation will spread from
southwest to northeast through the day, with all areas having a
good chance of showers through tonight (60-90%, highest for area
mountains). Breezy to locally windy southeast winds are
anticipated in portions of central and northeast Oregon. The 00Z
HREF suggests a high chance (60 to locally 100%) of 35 mph gusts,
but is less excited about the chance (20 to locally 60% along the
slopes of the northern Blue Mountains) of reaching 45 mph gusts
(advisory threshold). Have held off on issuing any wind highlights
due to insufficient confidence.

Monday through Tuesday, snow levels are forecast to lower to pass
level across the forecast area, and mountain snow showers will
return. While no winter highlights have been issued due to low
confidence in reaching advisory criteria, will need to monitor the
track of the low as it comes onshore (it is currently favored to
swing across southwest Oregon). The area that is most likely to
see advisory amounts is the Oregon Cascades (75% chance at Santiam
Pass for the 48-hr period ending 06Z Wednesday). NBM
probabilities of advisory-level snowfall totals are low (<30%)
elsewhere.

Lastly, there is some potential for thunder across the region late
today into tonight and especially Monday. Best chances will be
Monday afternoon across the Blue Mountains where 4-hr HREF-
calibrated probabilities of thunder range from 20-40%. Plunkett/86

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Models are in better
agreement in the overall pattern. A broad upper level low will
give way to an impressive upper level high by the weekend. There
are some differences in strength and speed of the upper high but
overall models are in good agreement. Cluster analysis shows
northwest flow over the area Wednesday as the center of the upper
level trough moves east. The upper level flow becomes more
northerly as the axis of the upper ridge moves closer to the coast
Thursday. 86% of the members keep it offshore into Friday. The
upper ridge continues to amplify in response to a cutoff low
developing over the Four Corners region. By Friday, clusters begin
to differ on how fast the ridge builds into the area. The
majority (53%) of members continue to keep it offshore while
Cluster 3 (30% of members) moves it inland. Cluster 4 (7% of
member, mostly GFS) shows it moving east of the area by Saturday.
By Sunday, the clusters vary the most with 77% of members showing
the ridge generally over the PacNW while the remainder push it
east in response to an upper level trough off the coast. The
clusters that tend to push it east quicker are primarily GFS
members. At this time will continue to prefer the ECMWF as it has
shown the most consistency. As a result, the broad upper level low
will move east Wednesday or Thursday as an upper level ridge
noses into the PacNW for a drying trend into the weekend.
Ensembles generally agree with the above scenario with GFS being
the faster to move the upper ridge over the area. The
deterministic models are in general agreement as well. However,
the ECMWF develops a cutoff low over southeast Oregon and Northern
Nevada Friday night into Saturday. At this time, this is an
outlier but it will need to be monitored. In summary, unsettled
weather, mainly over the mountains, will continue through
Wednesday or Thursday before a drying trend settles over the area
through the weekend.

QPF will generally be confined to the mountains Wednesday and
Thursday with a moderate to high chance (50-80%) of 0.10 or more
of precipitation on Wednesday decreasing to a moderate chance
(40-70%) by Thursday.

Daytime highs will be near normal Wednesday and Thursday rising to
above normal through the rest of the period. By Sunday,
temperatures could be 10-15 degrees above normal. Earle/81


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  40  56  35 /  20  70  70  20
ALW  61  42  55  38 /  10  80  80  30
PSC  64  41  60  37 /  10  60  40  10
YKM  60  37  57  34 /  20  70  20  10
HRI  64  40  59  35 /  20  70  50  10
ELN  58  36  54  34 /  10  80  40  10
RDM  57  33  52  29 /  40  60  30  30
LGD  53  37  49  30 /  10  80  90  50
GCD  54  35  49  30 /  40  80  90  50
DLS  59  40  57  37 /  60  80  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....81
AVIATION...95